The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is currently engulfed in a deepening leadership crisis, with parallel factions laying claim to the control of the party ahead of the 2027 general elections.
At the centre of the dispute are Nafiu Bala and a rival bloc led by former Senate President David Mark, both asserting legitimacy over the party’s national leadership.
Tensions escalated last week when the Mark-led faction, during its 8th National Convention in Abuja, announced the expulsion of Bala and several party figures, including Leke Abejide. The faction claimed the move was in line with the party’s constitution.
However, Bala rejected the convention, describing it as illegal and lacking recognition from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Addressing journalists in Abuja, he insisted those behind the expulsion lacked legal standing.
“Our suspension is nullity. These individuals are not even members of our party, so they lack the locus to take such decisions… We will fight it to the last point,” Bala said.
Beyond the leadership tussle, another layer of conflict is emerging within the Mark-led bloc over who will eventually fly the party’s presidential flag in 2027.
Although no official position has been declared, political alignments are already forming around key opposition figures. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar recently dismissed claims that other northern aspirants could rival his political strength, expressing confidence in his popularity and the prospects of a coalition producing either a consensus candidate or a competitive primary.
The situation is further complicated by the positioning of other political heavyweights, including Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Chibuike Amaechi.
Supporters of Obi maintain that he remains committed to a “president or nothing” stance within any coalition framework, while recent developments suggest closer political cooperation between Obi and Kwankwaso. This was highlighted by the launch of the Obi–Kwankwaso Movement, a new pressure group aimed at strengthening opposition alliances.
Meanwhile, the ADC’s 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, has criticised ongoing political manoeuvres, accusing aspirants within the party of prioritising personal ambition over national interest.
Amid coalition negotiations, Kwankwaso’s camp has signalled openness to compromise. Speaking through his spokesperson, Habibu Saleh, the former Kano State governor is willing to accept any role—including a vice-presidential slot—if it would ensure victory for the opposition and unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
“My principal has made it very clear that the goal is to remove this government and save democracy,” Saleh said, adding that Kwankwaso has been actively building alliances behind the scenes.
He also rejected claims that Kwankwaso’s influence is limited to Kano, citing his nationwide vote tally in the 2023 election as evidence of broader appeal.
On the possibility of a joint northern ticket with Atiku, Saleh dismissed the idea as unrealistic, stressing the need for regional balance to maintain national unity. He noted that a Kwankwaso-Obi ticket could be more appealing to voters.
Political analyst Hassan Ibrahim has warned that the ADC’s chances in 2027 depend heavily on resolving its internal crisis and fostering unity among opposition leaders.
According to him, the failure of Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso to align in the 2023 elections created a fragmented opposition that paved the way for Tinubu’s victory.
“If they had managed their ambition and formed a coalition, they would have easily defeated APC,” Ibrahim said, citing combined vote totals that surpassed the ruling party’s tally.
He stressed that the ADC must first settle its leadership dispute—currently involving multiple blocs, including those aligned with Bala, Mark and Kachikwu—before it can present a credible alternative.
Ibrahim also highlighted personal ambition as the biggest obstacle to any alliance, noting that disagreements over presidential and vice-presidential slots previously derailed coalition talks.
“They have to lower their ego. If they don’t, they are indirectly giving Tinubu a second term,” he warned.
As the 2027 elections approach, the ADC finds itself at a critical crossroads. With internal divisions, competing leadership claims, and ongoing coalition negotiations, the party’s ability to unify may determine whether it can emerge as a viable challenger to the ruling APC.
For now, the convergence of leadership battles and presidential ambitions continues to cast uncertainty over the party’s future and the broader opposition landscape in Nigeria.
