Fresh political conversations are emerging ahead of the 2027 general election following growing speculation about a possible alliance between former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, and the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
Although neither politician has officially emerged as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), both are widely regarded by supporters as potential challengers to the ruling party and other major opposition forces in the next election cycle.
Political analysts believe the ongoing discussions are influenced by the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, where both candidates recorded notable but regionally concentrated performances.
Obi polled more than six million votes nationwide under the Labour Party platform, winning 11 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, his victories in the North were largely limited to Plateau and Nasarawa states, alongside the FCT, where he enjoyed strong backing from urban voters and young Nigerians.
Kwankwaso, who contested under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), secured victory in Kano State and garnered nearly one million votes nationwide, reinforcing his influence across the North-West region.
The proposed alliance has since triggered debates over whether Kwankwaso’s political structure in the North could significantly improve Obi’s acceptability across the region ahead of the 2027 polls.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, political analyst and lecturer at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor Murtala Muhammad, said Obi’s northern support during the 2023 election was mostly concentrated among urban youths and voters seeking alternatives to the traditional political establishment.
“Peter Obi demonstrated some electoral strength in parts of Northern Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election, particularly in Abuja and among urban youths, middle-class voters, and citizens dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment,” he said.
According to Muhammad, available electoral data suggested that Obi’s strongest support base remained outside the North.
“Electoral analyses estimated his northern vote share at roughly 14 per cent, compared to over 40 per cent in Southern Nigeria,” he stated.
He noted that while a partnership with Kwankwaso could boost Obi’s competitiveness in Kano and parts of the North-West, it may not necessarily translate into broader regional dominance.
“Although a potential alliance with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could improve Obi’s competitiveness, particularly in Kano through the Kwankwasiyya movement, it does not automatically guarantee widespread northern support,” he added.
Muhammad argued that voting patterns across much of the North-West are still largely shaped by religion, regional identity, longstanding party loyalty and local political interests.
“Consequently, many northern voters may still be reluctant to support Obi despite Kwankwaso’s endorsement, making it analytically inaccurate to assume that Kwankwaso’s northern identity alone can deliver the wider North-West voting bloc to Obi,” he said.
Also reacting to the development, Kano-based politician and State House of Assembly aspirant, Aminu Abdullahi Ibrahim, acknowledged that Obi’s popularity had grown among northern youths since the 2023 election.
“I believe Peter Obi has gained a level of popularity in parts of northern Nigeria, especially among young people, urban voters, Christians in the North-Central region, and Nigerians who are frustrated,” Ibrahim said.
He stressed, however, that Obi still faces political limitations in the core North-West states where entrenched political structures remain influential.
“His popularity in the core North-West, particularly in states like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara, still remains limited when compared to established northern political figures such as Atiku Abubakar,” he added.
Despite the challenges, Ibrahim maintained that an alliance between Obi and Kwankwaso could provide a stronger opposition platform than what was witnessed during the 2023 election.
“That said, if Peter Obi and Kwankwaso eventually form a political alliance ahead of future elections, it could make a significant difference compared to 2023,” he stated.
According to him, mounting a serious challenge in 2027 would require more than popularity or social media support.
“They require strong grassroots mobilization, party unity, trusted local structures, religious and ethnic balancing, and the ability to protect votes across polling units. Even if Obi and Kwankwaso work together, translating public excitement into nationwide electoral victory will still be a major challenge,” Ibrahim said.
As coalition talks continue to attract national attention, political observers say the success of any Obi-Kwankwaso partnership may ultimately depend on whether both politicians can transform their individual regional strengths into a truly national political movement capable of competing across Nigeria’s diverse electoral landscape.
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