Oil markets rallied on Thursday while global equities edged lower, as renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened fears over the stability of the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The latest concerns follow a significant Israeli bombardment in Lebanon, which has escalated hostilities in the region. In the past two hours, the Hezbollah confirmed it launched rockets into northern Israel, describing the move as retaliation for alleged “ceasefire violations.”
The developments have raised alarms among investors, with fears that the ceasefire could collapse entirely. As a result, crude oil prices climbed sharply. West Texas Intermediate crude surged nearly 3% on Thursday, rebounding from a steep decline of more than 16% recorded a day earlier. Similarly, Brent crude rose by over 2%, recovering from a previous 13% drop.
Market analysts attribute the rebound to concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil supply. However, despite the price surge, independent assessments suggest that shipping activity through the strait remains largely unchanged.
A maritime intelligence firm, Windward, reported that only 11 vessels passed through the waterway on Wednesday—figures consistent with recent daily averages. This contrasts with claims from the White House, which stated that traffic had increased following the ceasefire announcement earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, global stock markets reacted negatively to the uncertainty. Early Asian trading saw modest declines across major exchanges in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, and Taipei, as investors pulled back from riskier assets.
Financial experts warn that continued volatility in both energy and equity markets is likely, especially if tensions escalate further or if the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran fails to hold.
