As Nigeria heads into another critical electoral cycle in 2027, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once the dominant political force in the country, is at a crossroads. Amid a flurry of defections and waning influence, some party leaders appear to be placing their hopes not on internal reform, but on the anticipated collapse of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
The PDP, reeling from a series of high-profile departures, notably three senators from Kebbi State—Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi North), and Garba Maidoki (Kebbi South)—who cited the party’s growing disconnection from Nigerians, finds itself in a precarious position. Before this, Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, former vice-presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa, and other PDP stalwarts also defected to the APC, setting off alarm bells within the party’s hierarchy.
Instead of confronting these challenges head-on, party heavyweights like former Jigawa State governor Sule Lamido are predicting a split in the APC that could open the doors for a PDP resurgence. At the PDP state congress in Dutse, Lamido boldly forecasted that the ruling party would implode within six months, triggering a mass return of defectors.
“I’m confident that all those who left the PDP will return, including [APC National Chairman] Ganduje, because very soon, the APC will burst and split into factions,” Lamido declared.
Former PDP National Publicity Secretary Kola Ologbondiyan echoed this sentiment, warning that the APC’s internal contradictions would soon boil over. “The implosion that is coming in the APC, they will not be able to handle it,” he said during an appearance on Channels Television.
However, political observers and analysts argue that this line of thinking is flawed and symptomatic of the PDP’s deeper malaise. They insist that rather than waiting for the APC to self-destruct, the PDP must undergo serious introspection, address internal divisions, and rebuild public trust if it hopes to mount a credible challenge in 2027.
The APC, despite its coalition origins and divergent internal interests, has repeatedly defied predictions of collapse. Formed in 2013 from the merger of the ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of APGA, the party has survived numerous political storms and continues to consolidate its hold on power.
Recent rumors of a breakaway CPC bloc led by former Justice Minister Abubakar Malami were quickly quashed when former Nasarawa governor Tanko Al-Makura led 23 prominent CPC-aligned figures to reaffirm loyalty to the APC. The move was widely seen as a masterstroke by the APC leadership in crisis containment—something the PDP has struggled with for years.
Reacting to Lamido’s comments, Ganduje dismissed the PDP as a dying party and urged its leaders to focus on solving their internal crises. “The PDP will go into extinction by the end of 2025 based on the internal squabbles in the party,” his spokesperson stated.
Osita Okechukwu, a founding member of the APC, offered a scathing critique of the PDP’s current strategy. “Where is the implosion coming from?” he asked. “In the APC, people are hopeful. You don’t see implosions where there is hope.”
He attributed PDP’s decline to a betrayal of trust, particularly the failure to respect zoning agreements during the 2023 presidential primaries, which alienated traditional supporters in the South and Southeast.
“In 2022, they threw the ticket open with the assumption that a northern candidate would guarantee victory. They forgot that the North, post-Buhari, wanted the presidency to rotate to the South,” Okechukwu said.
Highlighting the recent discontent within the PDP’s Southeast base—epitomized by the Enugu meeting where party leaders, including Governor Peter Mbah and former Senate President Adolphus Wabara, threatened to leave—he urged the PDP to reassess its approach.
“PDP must do a deep soul-searching and apologise to Nigerians for breaching its rotation principle. It must fix its own house before predicting doom for others,” Okechukwu said.
The APC, for its part, is leveraging recent constitutional reforms and federal investments to solidify support across the geopolitical zones. With over 20 governors and key development initiatives underway, the party remains focused on its 2027 ambitions.
As the political temperature rises ahead of 2027, one thing is clear: if the PDP remains fixated on external misfortunes rather than confronting its own failures, it risks further decline. The path to relevance may lie not in awaiting APC’s collapse but in rebuilding from within.
