Nigeria’s North-West geopolitical zone, the only region with seven states and a high voter population, has once again become the epicenter of political strategy as the 2027 general election looms. With history as a guide, political players recognize the region’s decisive influence in presidential elections, fueling intense maneuvering within and across party lines.
The consensus among political strategists is that North-West will be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2027 polls. The same dynamic played out in 2015 when Asiwaju Bola Tinubu leveraged the region’s electoral might to propel Muhammadu Buhari to the presidency. Tinubu himself capitalized on this factor in 2023, rallying influential governors to his side and securing a landmark victory.
However, with two years into Tinubu’s administration, questions linger: Can the president count on the legendary North-West vote bank to secure re-election? Or will internal party discontent and a resurgent opposition disrupt the APC’s plans?
The North-West, comprising Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kebbi, and Sokoto, has an immense pool of voters with Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs). This reality has shaped political calculations within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition.
The role of outgoing governors in Tinubu’s 2023 victory cannot be overstated. A combination of strategic negotiations and political maneuvering ensured that APC leaders like Mohammed Badaru (Jigawa), Nasir el-Rufai (Kaduna), Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Bello Masari (Katsina), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), and Bello Matawalle (Zamfara) threw their weight behind Tinubu.
But tensions arose when Tinubu overlooked the North-West for his vice-presidential pick, opting instead for Kashim Shettima from the North-East. This decision left some former governors disgruntled, particularly El-Rufai, a vocal advocate of the Muslim-Muslim ticket who had hoped to be Tinubu’s running mate.
Although Buhari helped unify APC forces before the 2023 polls, underlying dissatisfaction persisted. Some former governors regretted not backing former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi, during the primaries. Their discontent has fueled a vow to “correct past mistakes” in 2027.
Recognizing the North-West’s influence, the APC’s National Executive Committee (NEC) recently zoned the party chairmanship to the region, solidifying Ganduje’s leadership. Some see this move as a strategic effort to secure Tinubu’s second term bid, while others argue it is aimed at appeasing North-West leaders and preventing internal rebellion.
Ganduje, a key Tinubu ally, has been instrumental in consolidating APC’s grip on Kano, despite the strong presence of Rabiu Kwankwaso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). His continued leadership is viewed as a bulwark against opposition resurgence in the region.
However, tensions remain. The North-Central zone, which previously held the APC chairmanship through Abdullahi Adamu, felt sidelined by the decision. Opposition within APC, including figures like Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, briefly challenged Ganduje’s position in court before stepping down their agitation.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the APC has intensified efforts to weaken opposition strongholds. In Kano and Kaduna, defections from the PDP and NNPP to the ruling party have been significant. Kaduna’s Governor Uba Sani, once an ally of El-Rufai, has taken center stage, welcoming high-profile defectors, including former Governor Ramallan Yero and Senators Shehu Sani and Danjuma Laah.
At a recent APC gathering in Abuja, Ganduje and Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin expressed confidence that the internal crises within the PDP and NNPP would benefit APC. They plan to formally welcome defectors after Ramadan, in a move Ganduje claims will mark “the disappearance of PDP in northern Nigeria.”
However, the opposition is not backing down. El-Rufai, sidelined from Tinubu’s administration, has been rallying northern political elites. His recent alignment with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) signals a brewing showdown in the North-West.
The 2023 election results highlight the North-West’s unpredictable nature. While Tinubu won the presidency with 2,652,824 votes from the region, Atiku Abubakar’s PDP secured four of the seven states—Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, and Sokoto. Meanwhile, Kwankwaso’s NNPP dominated Kano, proving that APC’s grip on the region is not absolute.
With Atiku still a formidable force and El-Rufai’s defection to the SDP stirring uncertainty, the North-West is shaping up to be the ultimate battleground for 2027. The race is far from decided, and the political maneuvers unfolding now will determine who secures the all-important North-West vote.
