It is not new, novel or the first time I have stated that the Tinubu government has been exerting recklessness in the major policies it began since May 29, 2023. It is a government in a hurry to shore up it’s weak base by being able to lay claims to myriad policies to be interpreted as capacity, activism and the political-will-to-do: or just for it to be taken for granted that he is already in place, which cannot be political legitimacy, without which a government wobbles out in disgrace.
In part the recklessness of this government stems from, and is pretentiously struggling to create the impression that there is a difference between it and Buhari’s preceding government: Buhari started so late in fits and stumbles of appointing Ministers of Cabinet after 6-months. Now Tinubu is doing everything, playing host, funding and is prepared to lead everyone, including regional governments, into war and invasion of Niger, where a coup d’etat took place seven days ago.
The feat to show off and carry on, despite his dow mood and appearance of one who is not at his best elements, will be hard to call off, with new or dire consequences in the short term.
The other part in all this is the defense mechanism against the Presidential Election Tribunal 2023 judgement expected in less than 30-days: in their final address, the Tinubu legal team turned the opportunity into a bullwork of blackmail, “rule against me, and throw Nigeria into ANARCHY”.
Now to the other two major justifications on whether the recklessness is remotely justifiable, before we can analyze the actual recklessness contained in these indeterminable policy making processes. The adage “the race is not always to the swift” is the counterweight of the speed with which Tinubu’s policy factory churns out new policies. Sure most new administrations may want to “hit the ground running”, yet it has to show that it had studied and can show the public a certain level of consideration by being open to be involved and participate in public debates, discourses and persuasiveness. Tinubu refused blatantly, and coerced Atiku Abubakar into, insultingly accepting the same disposition that Nigerians cannot vet him, his policies and how they will be implemented: in arrogance and impunity, Tinubu would not be involved in any TV debates in Nigeria, but exposed his major weaknesses to the UK audience, at the Chatham House in London, where only the Whiteman’s legitimacy is all that can stop him from ruling Nigeria: or in counter parlance, ruining Nigeria. Thus without full public disclosure, Tinubu pounced on and descended on “subsidy removal” as he took oath to lead Nigeria. The recklessness took on a public shock disposition because no one ever knew even from his campaign promises that subsidy removal was a primary policy.
In applauding that first major policy, those who want to be close and benefit from him, interpreted it to be capacity. Hardly did anyone or most of them, publicly raise or consider the consequences of the policy on inflation, cost of living and social negatives such as hardships, public psychological collapse, public disobedience, awe and actual ANARCHY. Did these praise-singers calculate the quantum sum of monetary gains from subsidy removal, (including huge local leakages and corruption by all the elite of government, the security agencies and Unions, and even cheaper cost of petrol in neighboring countries), against the global consequences, effects and cost on the Nigerian economy and polity, and the totality of the quantum monetary cost of such a massive, intricate and complex policy? Of the two, which outweighs the other? Now, unless the NLC and TUC accept bribes, as they did immediately after May 29, 2023, Nigerians will go on Labour strike and lock down, and the country will be at a daily gross loss of N2 Trillion Naira GDP each day on account of the recklessness of the subsidy removal, knee-jerk decision, and the subsequent petrol price jackups that have no end in sight. Can Tinubu’s government, with new Ministers, tell Nigerians where or when the price hikes will stop? That is the level of ruin this new contraption in governance will bring to the Nigerian polity. When Buhari began his own governance, the Naira was devalued against the US Dollar, from N230.00 in 2015, to N760.00, on the tragic day May 29, 2023, that Tinubu took over from him. In less than 60 days, or there about, the slide has doubled in tempo. Who will bail this cat?
Stanza two: in professional boxing it is trite to wish to be reminded that you can “run but you cannot hide”. “Go to court” is another Nigerian adage in politics, especially those who buy votes, delegates and voters, who operate from Bullion vans. But the day of judgment in court will come. In and outside Nigeria, each passing day, the Tinubu government delivers untested, un-discussed, publicly never discussed spurious policies to the Nigerian public. The goal is to amass a plethora of decisions on the basis of which it can be said, “we have done do much, in so little time…….. “. Indeed, two months as President of Nigeria, would have been a greater blessing for more stable, trusted worthy studious other personages and sages, who did so much for the peoples of the South West, including Tinubu, at the personal level: yet the cabals of Nigeria refused them one day to be President. Legitimacy is not equivalent to “rigging” and gaining political power through the back door. So such for local recklessness, now to the international and regional arena.
COUP D’ETAT IN NIGER REPUBLIC: TINUBU TAKES OVER AND MANIPULATES ECOWAS TOWARDS RECKLESSNESS AND MILITARISM
Ten days after Tinubu became ECOWAS Chairman, a military coup d’etat struck close to home in Niger Republic. Watching Tinubu react and called the coup a tragedy, it was apparent that this unforeseen regional event had a capacity of the undoing.
Tinubu’s subsequent words showed he was stepping into another time bomb willingly. As though the stage was in Badagry-Lagos Nigeria, Tinubu ordered the Niger Republic coupists to return the country immediately to constitutional civil rule or be prepared for very severe consequences. Indeed, the ECOWAS Charter has provisions for orderly constitutional change of government, but is also has clauses for non interference in the affairs of member states, as well as due consultations within the Council of Heads of State. To take the type of steps, Tinubu started that evening of the coup, it was apparent he was on his own, with his closest advisers, and perhaps had not spoken with or had any input from the diplomats at the Foreign Ministry. This level of boldness could engender taciturnity and stubbornness, which is typical within the ECOWAS.
Nigeria has had a very difficult engagement with Niger Republic, in the 8-years of Buhari’s tenure, in which Daura-Zinder- Bazoum-Buhari appeared so close to be resembling one country. Buhari spent more Niger Delta earned oil revenue in south Niger Republic than he spent in the Niger Delta of Nigeria, per capita annuity. Rail systems, trade corridor, oil and gas conduit systems to feed the Refinery that China had funded, built and commissioned in Zinder, in Southern Niger Republic. Between Buhari and Bazuom the ebullient ousted Nigerien President, a cousinly friendship had grown, as though Tinubu had not taken over from Buhari. Thus the shock of the latter, over the coup, was just as deep as that of the former. But Tinubu had just acquired the ECOWAS pistons and levers of power, that convening a Council of Heads of State Emergency Meeting in Abuja, activated Nigeria’s money vans, and several Presidents, about eleven of the 15, were taxied into Abuja, with Nigeria paying all the bills. Granted that ECOWAS had in mid 2022, authorized the putting together of a regional military force, the strategic motive was not simply to overturn military coup d’etats, rather it was primarily to stabilize internal inter ethnic squabbles, avoid the spilling of innocent civilian blood, but more tangibly to provide teething to diplomatic negotiations and bargainings, in the region and forestall external interferences. Even at that, problems of structuring, composition, and most importantly funding such military escapades were yet to be sorted out. ECOWAS has always had funding problems, and Nigeria being the most economically robust, inevitably rescued the organization, if and when properly planned. In the instant Niger Republic case, the communique issued at the end of the one-day Emergency Summit rattled the region. The junta in Niamey, among other sanctions, was given 7-days to release and reinstate detained ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, or risk full scale military invasion, by the ECOWAS Military Force. Did such an ECOWAS outfit exist, could it be put together within such a short period of time and who will foot the bill? Clearly Nigeria, through the racing mind of Tinubu had written out an intention and declaration to go to war, against its neighbor, to the North. All the attending Summiteers departed Abuja, and next day the flack against Tinubu, and essentially Nigeria, began to arrive. General Abdoulaye Tchian, newly declared head of state of Niger, responded to Tinubu, that he would not listen or heed him because “you (Tinubu) are illegitimate”. It was so bold and hard! In the early comments I made on Tinubu grabbing the ECOWAS Chairmanship, in order to gain acceptability and legitimacy from foreigners, especially in our region, I warned of backlashes from other ECOWAS leaders, that prediction had finally come to roost. Tchian had been head of the Niger Republic Presidential Guard for 8-years, and was very well known to several APC politicians, in Nigeria, due to the frequency of interactions between Buhari and Bazoum. Was it not instructional that despite that closeness that Tchian was actually the master tactician to oust his boss and benefactor? Was it not deep for Tinubu or his advisers to hazard that in the decision to put Tchian in charge of Niger Republic, by his co-plotters, that the complexity of the problems and situation in Niger, which included Islamic terrorism and irredentism, corruption and favoritism, meant that the military takeover would not be easily thrown out?
Like Mali and Sudan, and even the Central African Republic, Niger Republic had been flirting with Russia’s Wagner Mercenaries, to help hold down ISWAP, Alqueda in the Maghreb and Sahel, and Boko Haram, infiltrating through western Chad, northern Katsina, eastern Mali and southern Libya? What about the huge funds and capacity that China has in Niger, and in spite of the exiting tendency of France, that a lot more is needed and was required to be considered, in the event of the coup, rather than a reckless full-scale jump into a solution that would involve an invasion of a sovereign militarily activated and aroused independent nation?
In earlier asking the question what Nigeria hoped to gain in Tinubu’s grabbing of the ECOWAS Chairmanship, which I raised only a few days ago, was only a generic postulation, now finally the real result has appeared. With the Nigerien head of new military junta, openly and globally calling Tinubu’s position in Nigeria ILLEGITIMATE and ILLEGAL, what would the 2023 Presidential Election Tribunal give as judgment in the case to remove Tinubu? Who brought this shame and diplomatic embarrassment on Nigeria? On Tinubu, and all those who have been making efforts to retain Tinubu? An adage in my native Asaba Igbo dialect would say, “ that one who goes into the bush, and collects firewood, riddled with ants, would be bitten by the ants, no matter what”. Both Tinubu and Nigeria brought on our heads, firewood riddled with ants, and that is why, we are being eaten by ants. Nigeria needs an urgent reassessment of her positions, in the foreign relations policies of the past 60- days, or so. Here is a start:
SOLUTIONS:
1. Only the Rule of Law, in the ECOWAS region can guarantee democratic change of governments: rigging, announcing of partially collated or compliant results, severally, at elections will engender military coup d’etats, anarchy, agitations to break up a country, any country, including Nigeria.
2. Diplomacy, rather than hard economic sanctions such as cutting off electricity supply to Niger Republic which Nigeria has just activated, against the civil populace, of Niger Republic, or giving and issuing political ultimatums, which is not directed at seeking disengagement of the Nigerien military juntas, in 3-9 months, which will definitely bring relief to the region, and avert the war going on now in Sudan. Sierra Leone has just accused it’s military of plotting a coup against the State: how many “invasions” can ECOWAS undertake? Who can predict the next country? Is that why Nigeria is so shaken?
3. Bureaucrats in Nigeria’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, need to reach out to Aso Rock, faster than they are doing now, to forestall more unexpected embarrassments or situations, such as just embarrassed Tinubu and Nigeria, pending the inevitable judgments in the 2023 Presidential Tribunal or Supreme Court.
4. ECOWAS Charter by its organic nature has not envisaged belligerent invasions of member states, especially on matters of coup d’etats, as reason for the ECOWAS Regional Military Force, redefinition of that Clause is urgently called for.
5. Inflicting social and economic hardships on the civil population of Niger Republic, or tightening the economic grip on Niger will further drive the junta, towards Russia, Wagner Mercenary Forces, China or Islamic based groups: negotiating out the Military in Niger, from politics based on a timetable of return to democracy serves the neutral ECOWAS cause more than any other. Rule of Law, following and sticking to due processes during elections, and honest good governance principles by African leaders is the ultimate panacea for the region, and continent.
In conclusion, it is becoming so intricate and complex to follow the aggregated and global interests of the French, USA, EU, Russia, China and the extremist governments in the Middle East, that it is wiser to define the interests of regional and continental governments in Africa to pivot on economic gains, inspired locally and to avoid the egging of Moscow, Beijing, Washington DC, Brussels or Paris and London. Nigeria has more than enough of our own to chew now, and the luxury of time is against us: Nigeria is sunk, waiting and seating on several kegs of gun powder, and the Tinubu style in 63-days has indeed further divided Nigeria wider than Buhari did in 8-years. To reduce the cost of living, stabilize the economy and sanitize the legislature and inspire a judicial rebirth. Corruption and cronyism, the list is endless. God save Nigeria!
