Despite mounting economic challenges and persistent criticism, the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears to be gaining some traction in the eyes of a segment of the Nigerian populace, according to the latest public opinion survey conducted by NOI Polls. The data, released for April 2025, shows that Tinubu’s job approval rating has climbed from a historic low of 11% in February 2024 to 40% in March 2025.
While the figures signal a modest upward trend, the poll has ignited debate across political and economic circles, with opposition leaders and independent experts dismissing the rating as detached from reality and inconsistent with the lived experiences of millions of Nigerians facing worsening economic hardship.
A Gradual Rebound Amid Tough Times
The poll suggests that Nigerians may be gradually adapting to the economic reforms initiated by the Tinubu administration, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and exchange rate unification — policies that triggered sharp increases in fuel prices, transportation costs, and food inflation. The administration had argued these reforms were necessary for long-term economic recovery and sustainable fiscal management.
Historically, Nigerian presidents have seen approval ratings fluctuate drastically, often in direct correlation with economic conditions and public sentiment. After peaking at 43% shortly after Tinubu’s inauguration in June 2023, approval plummeted as the immediate impact of subsidy removal and inflation began to bite.
According to NOI Polls, the current 40% rating indicates a slow but noticeable recovery in public perception, possibly driven by ongoing government outreach, palliative initiatives, and promises of future economic stability.
Experts Cast Doubt on Poll Credibility
However, many experts and analysts question the credibility of the poll and whether it accurately reflects grassroots realities. Speaking with The Guardian, telecoms expert Kehinde Aluko expressed skepticism over the poll methodology, citing soaring unemployment and underemployment, especially among youth.
“The structure of the Nigerian labour market remains fragile,” Aluko said. “Most Nigerians are trapped in precarious, non-paid or self-employed positions. A 40% approval rating, in this context, raises eyebrows.”
He also pointed to the fuel subsidy removal as a key driver of economic pain, saying it had triggered a domino effect of cost hikes that have made daily life unbearable for many households.
“While the policy may be fiscally rational, its execution has inflicted untold hardship. The cost of living is out of control. People are adapting not because things are better, but because they have no choice.”
“40% Is Still a Failing Grade” – Analysts
Macroeconomist and investment strategist, Dr. Vincent Nwani, offered a mixed perspective. While acknowledging a relative improvement, he warned against over-celebrating the numbers.
“In academia, 40% is still an F. It’s not a pass mark,” Nwani stated. “Yes, the figure is better than the abysmal ratings of last year, but it simply means Nigerians are adapting to hardship, not escaping it.”
According to Nwani, many Nigerians have resigned themselves to the economic squeeze, adjusting to fuel at nearly ₦900 per litre and higher electricity tariffs, but the real question remains whether these sacrifices are translating into visible national gains.
Another policy analyst, Awani (last name not provided), also criticized the poll’s validity, questioning who exactly was polled.
“Were these rich elites or everyday Nigerians struggling to put food on the table? Was it APC loyalists, or a representative sample?” he asked. “Yes, people might be adjusting, but that doesn’t mean they’re thriving. Are we where we should be as a nation? The answer is clearly no.”
Opposition Leaders React: “The People Are Angry”
Meanwhile, top opposition figures have used the occasion to once again critique the administration’s performance, describing it as underwhelming and regressive.
Former Vice President and 2023 PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, blasted the Tinubu administration via a statement on his verified X (formerly Twitter) account. He described the economic policies as “the last refuge of the incompetent,” arguing that inflation, job losses, and rising insecurity have pushed the country into deeper distress.
“Nigerians are not just tired — they are angry, and rightfully so,” Atiku said. “Inflation is choking the masses, jobs are vanishing, and the economy is in freefall. The government has no record to defend.”
Atiku warned against divisive tactics by the government and called for national unity to hold the administration accountable.
“The real enemy is not one another. It is the Tinubu administration’s abysmal failure. We must reject ethnic or religious manipulation used to cover up incompetence,” he declared.
Obi: Declare War on Insecurity and Economic Despair
Labour Party’s 2023 presidential flagbearer, Peter Obi, also weighed in on the issue, calling for decisive action against insecurity and economic decay. Via X, Obi urged the government to “declare war” on poverty, unemployment, and the worsening security situation.
“We cannot continue like this,” Obi wrote. “It’s time for bold action and a united front against these national challenges. We must build a safer and more just society for all.”
He pointed to persistent kidnappings and economic hardship as symptoms of leadership failure, not just policy missteps.
While the NOI Polls data shows a rebound in public sentiment toward President Tinubu, the mixed reactions it has provoked reflect a deeply divided nation. Many Nigerians remain skeptical that recent improvements in approval ratings correlate with real improvements in quality of life.
The latest poll underscores a growing psychological shift: citizens may be adjusting to hardship, but whether they are genuinely hopeful about the future remains a matter of debate.
As Nigeria continues to grapple with insecurity, inflation, and development challenges, the question remains: will adaptation eventually lead to transformation — or just further resignation?
