As Nigeria edges closer to the 2027 general election, a calculated and wide-reaching political strategy, dubbed ‘Operation Jagabanise the South’, is rapidly gaining traction. The initiative, led by loyalists of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and strategists within the All Progressives Congress (APC), seeks to secure a sweeping southern mandate to bolster the president’s bid for re-election.
Despite losing in 12 of the 17 southern states during the 2023 election—including his home state of Lagos—President Tinubu and the APC appear determined to flip the script. The party, which previously held sway in seven southern states, now controls nine, following a strategic victory in the 2024 Edo State governorship poll and the dramatic defection of Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori from the PDP to the APC, along with a host of key political figures.
Though large-scale defections have slowed, there is growing evidence of a silent but significant political realignment sweeping through the South, driven by what insiders call a well-orchestrated plan to “Jagabanise” the region—a nod to Tinubu’s political moniker and influence.
Among the most notable recent developments is the surprise endorsement of Tinubu’s re-election bid by the PDP Senators’ Caucus in Osun State. In an unprecedented move, Senators Kamarudeen Oyewumi, Olubiyi Ajagunla, and Francis Fadahunsi declared unified support for Tinubu’s vision, citing improvements in national security and economic stability under his leadership.
Also tipping the scales, Akwa Ibom Governor Umo Eno—another PDP stalwart—has reportedly finalized plans to defect to the APC. Addressing his executive council, he informed appointees to either join him or resign. Eno has been vocal in his praise of Tinubu’s infrastructural projects, notably the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, and has affirmed support for Tinubu’s second term, calling the President a “visionary and de-tribalised leader.”
Elsewhere, Anambra State Governor Charles Soludo of APGA added further political weight to Tinubu’s southern push by announcing that his party would adopt the President as its candidate in 2027. Echoing this sentiment, Minister of Works Dave Umahi claimed that all Southeast governors—regardless of party lines—now support Tinubu’s presidency, and that a regional summit to formally endorse him is imminent.
The push has not gone unnoticed by opposition figures. Former Kaduna State Governor and now SDP leader, Nasir El-Rufai, has emerged as a vocal critic, revealing that opposition coalitions are actively plotting to unseat Tinubu. Speaking in Kano, El-Rufai downplayed the importance of governors in swaying electoral outcomes, citing Tinubu’s loss in Lagos in 2023 as proof.
Indeed, Tinubu’s southern performance in the last presidential race tells a cautionary tale. He secured victory in just five states—Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, and Rivers—while suffering defeats in Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and most Southeast states, where Labour Party’s Peter Obi swept the polls.
Yet, Tinubu’s recent political manoeuvres suggest he is not leaving anything to chance. Speaking at the APC National Policy and Development Summit in Abuja last Thursday, the President confidently predicted more defections from opposition parties, dismissing concerns about the rise of a one-party state.
“You don’t blame people for bailing out of a sinking ship. I expect more to come,” Tinubu said. “We are in a constitutional democracy that guarantees freedom of movement and association. Welcome to the progressives.”
Buoyed by endorsements from APC governors, National Assembly leaders, and expanding influence in the South, the President is eyeing the 2027 polls with renewed optimism.
Whether this southern charm offensive will ultimately translate into electoral dominance remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: Operation Jagabanise the South is no longer a subtle ambition—it is now a full-fledged political campaign.
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