Nigeria’s total exports reached $50.4 billion in 2024, driven by the depreciation of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidies, which significantly improved the country’s trade balance.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the nation recorded a total trade volume of N138 trillion, the highest in its history. This represents a 106% increase from the previous year. When converted to dollars, the total trade amounted to $89.9 billion, reflecting a 22.1% increase in 2024.
This marks a strong recovery from the 35% decline in trade recorded in the prior year when the government adopted a more market-driven exchange rate.
Nigeria previously hit a five-year trade high in 2022, when total trade stood at $113.8 billion, based on an official exchange rate of N460 per dollar. However, when the parallel market rate of N736/$1 was applied, the dollarized value of trade was lower, at $71.7 billion.
Following the transition to a market-driven exchange rate in 2023, the naira depreciated by 50%. However, businesses seem to have adjusted to this shift, contributing to the notable increase in trade during 2024.
What the Data Reveals
A deeper analysis of the figures shows that total trade in 2024 rose from N66.8 trillion in 2023 to N138 trillion. Adjusting for the exchange rate, this results in a 22.1% increase in dollar terms, bringing total trade to $89.9 billion.
The calculations, based on Nairametrics’ methodology, used the official closing exchange rates of N1,535/$1 for 2024 and N907/$1 for 2023. Previous years were also analyzed using official exchange rates.
Total exports nearly doubled, rising 96.3% to N60.59 trillion in 2024, driven by increased crude oil production, which reached 1.5 million barrels per day.
In dollar terms, exports stood at $50.5 billion in 2024, compared to $39.6 billion in 2023. However, this remains lower than the $58.2 billion recorded in 2022, which, at the time, amounted to N26.7 trillion based on the prevailing exchange rate.
Using the parallel market rate, 2024 would have yielded the highest export earnings.
Crude Oil Exports Still Dominate
Crude oil exports remained the largest contributor, accounting for $36 billion (N55.2 trillion) in 2024, which represents 71% of total exports.
This compares to $31 billion in 2023 and $45.8 billion in 2022.
Nigeria continues to rely heavily on crude oil exports to finance government spending and maintain foreign exchange reserves. However, challenges persist, including oil theft, lack of investment in upstream production, and environmental issues affecting output.
Despite efforts to boost crude oil exports, the government has yet to meet its production target of 2 million barrels per day.
Non-Oil Exports Reach Highest Level in Four Years
Non-oil exports rose to $5.9 billion in 2024, marking their highest level since 2020 in both naira and dollar terms. These exports primarily consist of agricultural and mineral products, with Africa serving as a key market.
Imports Also on the Rise
Nigeria’s total imports increased in 2024, reaching $39 billion (N60.5 trillion) based on the official exchange rate of N1,535/$1.
This is higher than the $34 billion recorded in 2023 but still significantly lower than the $55.6 billion in 2022.
The decline in Nigeria’s import bill in recent years is largely due to the depreciation of the naira and limited access to foreign exchange for businesses and consumers.
What You Should Know
While Nigeria’s trade data suggests economic growth and improved investor confidence, it is important to recognize that these figures do not account for trade in services.
Service imports, particularly in technology, consulting, and technical support, play a major role in Nigeria’s foreign exchange demand. These outflows continue to exert pressure on the exchange rate and impact the country’s current account balance.
Despite these challenges, the latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicates that Nigeria recorded a current account balance of $5.14 billion in Q3 2024, according to the CBN’s Balance of Trade report.
This suggests some improvement in Nigeria’s external accounts, even as the country grapples with persistent foreign exchange challenges.
