Nigeria has recorded a trade surplus of $18.75 billion in the first eleven months of 2024, marking a 26.4 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase from the $14.83 billion surplus reported during the same period in 2023. This growth, despite a decline in both imports and exports, reflects the country’s evolving trade dynamics.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monthly Economic Report, total exports dropped by 1.98 percent YoY to $51.18 billion from $52.23 billion in the same period of 2023. Similarly, imports fell more significantly by 13 percent, reducing from $38.58 billion in 11m’23 to $33.56 billion in 11m’24.
Trade Surplus Sees Consistent Growth
The CBN report further detailed that Nigeria’s trade surplus rose to $1.33 billion in November 2024, up from $1.13 billion recorded in October. This increase was driven by a rise in export earnings, particularly in crude oil and non-oil sectors, while import expenditures saw a decline.
Breakdown of Export and Import Activities:
- Export Receipts: Increased by 3.44 percent to $4.51 billion in November 2024 from $4.36 billion in October, largely due to improved crude oil production and a surge in non-oil exports.
- Import Bills: Declined by 2.45 percent, falling to $3.18 billion in November from $3.26 billion in October, mainly due to reduced importation of petroleum products.
Crude Oil and Gas Dominate Export Earnings
An analysis of exports by composition revealed that crude oil and gas exports accounted for a substantial 86.27 percent of total export receipts, while non-oil exports made up the remaining percentage. This underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on oil as the primary revenue driver in international trade.
Meanwhile, non-oil export earnings saw a slight increase of 0.72 percent to $0.62 billion in November 2024, buoyed by higher receipts from agricultural commodity exports.
Decline in Merchandise Imports
The decrease in import expenditure was attributed to lower oil and non-oil imports. Data from the CBN indicated that total import value dropped by 2.45 percent in November, reflecting the declining trend in petroleum product imports.
Economic Implications
The rising trade surplus highlights Nigeria’s ability to maintain a positive balance despite external trade challenges. The increase in oil production has significantly contributed to export earnings, while the decline in import expenditure suggests efforts to boost local production and reduce dependency on foreign goods.
As Nigeria continues to navigate economic fluctuations, these trade trends will play a critical role in shaping policy decisions aimed at sustaining economic growth and financial stability.
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