A new conflict analysis has revealed that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration recorded the highest number of conflict-related fatalities within its first three years compared to previous democratic governments in Nigeria.
The data, published by opinions.statisense.co and sourced from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), showed that between May 2023 and May 2026, Nigeria recorded 35,432 deaths linked to violent conflicts under the Tinubu administration.
The figure is significantly higher than the numbers recorded during the first three years of past administrations since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.
According to the report, former President Olusegun Obasanjo recorded 7,522 conflict-related fatalities between May 1999 and May 2002, while the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua recorded 4,889 deaths from May 2007 to May 2010.
Former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration witnessed 7,400 fatalities within its first three years from May 2010 to May 2013, while former President Muhammadu Buhari recorded 17,319 deaths between May 2015 and May 2018.
The report noted that the 35,432 fatalities recorded under Tinubu were 15,621 deaths higher than the combined total of the Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Jonathan administrations during the same three-year period, which stood at 19,811.
Analysts say the figures reflect the worsening security challenges across several parts of the country, including insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, communal clashes in the Middle Belt, separatist violence in the South-East and rising kidnappings nationwide.
The statistics have sparked fresh debate over the effectiveness of Nigeria’s security architecture and the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to tackle violent conflicts across the country.
Neither the Presidency nor security agencies had officially reacted to the report as of the time of filing this report.
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